Unemployment Rate Ratchets Back Up

After a six-month streak of either decreasing or staying flat, North Carolina's unemployment rate increased in October--to 11 percent. Unemployment in September stood at 10.8 percent. We'll get an idea of what this means for Edgecombe County on Tuesday, December 1st, when the state releases jobless rates for individual counties. Even in months when the state-wide unemployment rate dropped, Edgecombe has seen it's jobless numbers tick upward.

Read the full news release:

http://www.ncesc1.com/pmi/rates/ratesmain.asp

Good News Amid High Unemployment

Good News Amid High Unemployment

Back in September, there was sadness being served at the corner of Main & Church streets, instead of the coffee and sandwiches that were once on the menu. The owners of the Main Street Cafe, lured out of town by an attractive job offer, had decided to close the place. In a community that's struggling with high unemployment, there were plenty of concerns that the prominent corner would sit empty indefinitely.

Millions of Americans are out of work; many of those who are fortunate enough to still draw a paycheck are pulling back their spending and refraining from risk taking like never before. Then there are folks like Evelyn West and Gloria Wooding, who are venturing out into an economic storm so many are trying to avoid. They re-opened a new Main Street Cafe in the same location in early October.




Evelyn, who was working in insurance before leaving to start the restaurant, knows the timing raises eyebrows. "Crazy, right?" she says. "I've lived here my whole life and as long as I can remember, there's always been something in this spot. It's such a great spot and it's a great location and it was one more Tarboro business that was going to be closed and I just didn't want to see that."




Evelyn's Aunt--and restaurant co-owner--Gloria Wooding has run restaurants before. They plan to keep the menu simple: sandwiches, soups, desserts, coffee. It's so far, so good they say, as far as business is concerned. The people of Tarboro seem grateful to have a new restaurant up-and-running so quickly, Evelyn says. I've had a huge outpouring of support. "People tell me all the time how thankful they are that we're open, how glad they are to see something still going on here."

Edgecombe County has plans to move dozens of workers to the former Embarq Communications building downtown. That could translate into a steady stream of folks coming through the doors at lunch time, a potential that factored into Evelyn and Glenda's decision to open Main Street Cafe when they did. It's also led the owners of Bud's grill to open a new downtown establishment, the Classic Diner.




There's also good news a few miles away from Tarboro, in the town of Pinetops, where industrial transformer manufacturer ABB is announcing plans to expand its oeprations. The planned expansion could eventually create 60 jobs.

All the good news is still muted by the fact that Edgecombe County's unemployment rate stands at more than 16 percent right now--and goes even higher when it's seasonally adjusted. Only one of North Carolina's 100 counties has a higher percentage of its people out of work. But, if nothing else, the restaurant openings and business expansions are giving the people of Edgecombe County some encouragement and hope--two things that are too often in short supply.
Posted by Rob Holliday at 8:04 PM

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Edgecombe County Unemployment Edges Up, N.C. State Rate Falls

Last month the unemployment rate (for August) increased in Edgecombe County and in the nation, but the rate for North Carolina fell. Remember, these rates are based on the particular characteristics of the area in question, so there is no reason to believe that all rates in NC should follow the same pattern.

While we see many signs that show us that the economy is improving, we are not out of the water. We are simply coming off the bottom of a major slowdown – and few areas have been immune. And as we improve, it is not unusual to experience bumps in the road – or, in this case, up and down variations in the unemployment rate.

The nation’s unemployment rate comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The national CPS is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, there is no state CPS survey, so the unemployment rates for North Carolina are adaptations from the national survey and less reflective of the State’s labor force. In other words, they are not as accurate or as reliable as the national unemployment rate. If you follow the logic down to the county level, the estimates become less accurate and less reliable presentations of economic health. And, because many of the counties are small, it is not unusual to see more dramatic variations from month to month.

One of the better measures of unemployment -- and the foundation of the variation in the unemployment rates – is the insured employment number. This measure reflects the number of persons that are receiving unemployment checks. This number is published weekly for the nation and North Carolina and monthly for the counties. Many economists are focusing on this number as a very good indicator of the economy – as it is a real count and not an estimate like the unemployment rate.

I have attached graphs for Edgecombe County and for North Carolina. In both cases the current rate is below the peak and (hopefully) on a sustainable downward trend. For Edgecombe, you should be able to see the August uptick that forced the unemployment rate upward. We also see a rise in the North Carolina, but since its numbers are much larger, this rise had a smaller effect statewide on the unemployment rate

Finally, although we could spend a great deal of time talking about the insured unemployment data, we need to be sure to keep the data in perspective. While the increase in Edgecombe is relatively smaller, it really started from a higher level. The August total represents approximately 5.6 percent of the population that are of working age (18-64), while the much higher relative total is only 3.7 percent of the same aged population for North Carolina. So, even when the Edgecombe County economy recovers from the current recession, it will need to add many additional jobs for the working population to be comparatively employed.

A September They'll Always Remember

[ Watch Hurricane Floyd: 10th Anniversary Part 2 ]

No matter what else is happening in the world, the month of September always brings back some of Edgecombe County's most painful memories. It was 10 years ago this month--on September 16th, 1999--that Hurricane Floyd made landfall in North Carolina and changed the landscape of Eastern North Carolina forever.

U.S. Highway 64--September 1999

U.S. Highway 64--September 2009

Hurricane Floyd became a rain-maker of epic proportions, dropping as many as 22 inches of rain in some communities. In and of itself, that's a staggering amount of rainfall, but it was made much worse by what had happened two weeks before. Hurricane Dennis dropped heavy rains into creeks and rivers--bringing them up to flood stage BEFORE Hurricane Floyd arrived. The result was the worst natural disaster in state history: a 500-year flood that killed more than 50 people and caused $6.5 billion in damage.

Edgecombe County endured some of Floyd's worst devastation. In the days immediately after the storm hit, 40 percent of Edgecombe County was under water. Hundreds of families were forced into shelters, many of whom had never seen flooding anywhere near their homes.

10 years later, the water is long gone, but the memories remain. There are some more permanent indications of the devastation Floyd caused in places like Tarboro and Rocky Mount, which participated in one of the largest buyouts in FEMA history. Hundreds of homes and apartment buildings were purchased at pre-flood market value, their owners able to move to new properties out of harm's way.

Things are much different now: the communities, after the buyouts, are more flood-resistant; weather forecasting technology has improved many times over; more emergency responders are trained in swift water rescue techniques.



Hurricane Floyd was one of the worst storm's eastern North Carolina has ever seen, but it's given the people of places like Edgecombe County a strength many communities don't have. As they weather the worst economic storm in generations, Edgecombe County's men and women are drawing on their ability to overcome, to keep moving forward in the face of struggle--a lesson they learned in that devastating storm 10 years ago this month.

The local area unemployment numbers for North Carolina were released on Friday (August 28). And, as we do every month in my office, we seasonally adjust the information. This process produces a little more optimistic look for the region than the information that was not seasonally adjusted, but these data by no means suggest that the hard times are over.

The release for July gives the unemployment rate for Edgecombe at 16.3 percent, while the rate for Nash county was 12.9 . When you seasonally adjust the data, the unemployment rates drop to 15.6 percent for Edgecombe and 11.9 percent for Nash. The rates dropped because unemployment typically goes up in July and because the loss was not as large as normal (probably because many of the jobs were lost during the prior year).

Obviously, the bad news is that the rates for the region continue to remain high and significantly above the rates found in 2008.

On a national and state scale, the “collective wisdom” suggests that the worst is over. Things are still bad and we are not out of the woods. We are simply beginning to climb off the bottom. And, the sooner the national and state climb off the bottom, the sooner we will see the tide rise in eastern North Carolina…..and the sooner we see announcements like the expected expansion at Sara Lee, the sooner will see the better health return to Edgecombe and Nash counties.

Some Good News for Edgecombe County

Sara Lee Facility, Tarboro, NC

Wednesday brought North Carolina's chief executive to Edgecombe County. Governor Bev Perdue traveled to Tarboro with exciting news for this community: new jobs. Foods producer Sara Lee is adding 45 jobs to its Tarboro facility and investing $11 million.



Governor Beverly Perdue (D-NC)

Sara Lee is already one of Edgecombe's largest employers with 808 full-time employees right now. The additional 45 positions will help the company expand its biscuit making operations. By the time all the new equipment is up and running, the Tarboro facility will produce about 102 million pounds of food products each year.


This is no doubt good news for Edgecombe County--which has chronically had one of North Carolina's highest unemployment rates--but it comes with a surprising twist in this age of economic incentives. State leaders say Sara Lee decided to create the jobs and invest the $11 million without getting any tax breaks, credits or other incentives in return.




--Rob Holliday, UNC-TV